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Up until a few
decades ago, our visions of the future were largely—though by no means uniformly—glowingly positive. Science and
technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfilment
and opportunity for all.
Now utopia has
grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of
threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change.
You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look
forward to.
But such
gloominess is misplaced. The fossil record shows that many species have endured
for millions of years—so why shouldn’t we? Take a broader look at our species’ place in the
universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving
for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years. Look up Homo sapiens in the “Red List” of threatened species of the
International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and you will read:
“Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable,
currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall
population decline.”
So what does
our deep future hold? A growing number of researchers and organizations are now
thinking seriously about that question. For example, the Long Now Foundation
has as its flagship project a mechanical clock that is designed to still be
marking time thousands of years hence.
Perhaps
willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about
the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today’s technology, and
its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it’s perhaps best left
to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities
we can envisage. That’s one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.
But take a
longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable
assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now
identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet,
and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which
our descendants will find themselves.
This long
perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be
a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now
knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence
of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.
31. Our
vision of the future used to be inspired by
[A] our desire for lives of
fulfillment.
[B] our faith in science and
technology.
[C] our awareness of potential
risks.
[D] our belief in equal
opportunity.
32. The
IUCN’s “Red List” suggests that human beings are
[A] a sustained species.
[B] a threat to the environment.
[C] the world’s dominant power.
[D] a misplaced race.
33. Which
of the following is true according to Paragraph 5?
[A] Arc helps limit the scope of futurological studies.
[B] Technology offers solutions to
social problems.
[C] The interest in science
fiction is on the rise.
[D] Our immediate future is hard
to conceive.
34. To
ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to
[A] explore our planet’s abundant
resources.
[B] adopt an optimistic view of
the world.
[C] draw on our experience from
the past.
[D] curb our ambition to reshape
history.
35. Which
of the following would be the best title for the text?
[A] Uncertainty about Our Future
[B] Evolution of the Human Species
[C] The Ever-bright Prospects of
Mankind
[D] Science, Technology and Humanity
11. D 12. C
13. B 14. D 15.B
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